Almost six months after release, Windows Phone 7 is still an afterthought in the minds of most consumers when they think about what kind of smartphone to buy. For most consumers, the choice is between the big two: Android and iOS, with the occasional road warrior jockeying for a Blackberry.
By 2015, though, that’s going to radically change, according to IDC. They claim that in just four years, Windows Phone 7 will go from being a non-entity in the smartphone world to the second biggest smartphone operating system around.
Why does IDC expect such great things from Windows Phone 7? It’s all about the Nokia partnership. It’s true that both Nokia and Windows Phone 7 are on the wane when it comes to popularity, but Nokia still ships more handsets than any other manufacturer on Earth… and going forward, Windows Phone 7 will be installed on most of them.
In a way, the argument makes sense. According to IDC’s data, Nokia’s Symbian OS is currently the second most popular smartphone operating system in the world, commanding a nearly 21% market share compared to Android’s 39.5% market share. By 2015, though, it’s Windows Phone 7 that IDC expects to command the 21% market share.
IDC’s argument is all about scale of handset production, not popularity… but that might be a mistake. It doesn’t follow that Nokia will be making as many phones in 2015 as they are making today, because for them to do so, demand will need to keep pace… and Nokia phones are less in demand right now than ever. Likewise, it doesn’t follow that Windows Phone 7’s partnership with Nokia will result in more sales all around. You can’t smash two lame ducks together and get a goose, after all.
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